the individual estimates are useless; i gave all who could reasonably pb in 120 11 points, for a 30-point coin-toss with 1/3 chance. the scoring is another unsuccessful attempt to balance the unbalanceable 120 category, but a regression bc of the instability of the coin-toss

fleegar

@shoutplenty

took a crack at predicting the latest sms fantasy league

my gut reaction was the scoring is heavily biased towards 602/smg runners (see expreli, zgamut) and the team w those in it wins it, but applying an estimate for how many ppl actually play 120 placed yhatohs team above them

12/20/2022, 4:31:31 PM

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fleegar

@shoutplenty

yhatoh having made the best any% picks. those 2 teams are the only competitive ones i think, and the outcome is mostly in the 602 team's hands – if three of them pb in 120 (as they should) then it's likely gg

12/20/2022, 4:31:32 PM

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fleegar

@shoutplenty

the individual estimates are useless; i gave all who could reasonably pb in 120 11 points, for a 30-point coin-toss with 1/3 chance. the scoring is another unsuccessful attempt to balance the unbalanceable 120 category, but a regression bc of the instability of the coin-toss

12/20/2022, 4:31:33 PM

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fleegar

@shoutplenty

that volatility condensed into 1.5 months is fun for many no doubt

for any%, i gave jj 0 and orange 40 to split a 0/40 coin-toss

i'm again a safe bet for top 5 in any% points, which'd prolly place me in the team of the league (top 7) despite losing to everyone who pbs 120 lmao

12/20/2022, 4:31:34 PM

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fleegar

@shoutplenty

there've again been several picks who are too slow, not playing, or explicitly retired even, all picked via obvious friendship motive, and viable candidates who signed up and were overlooked, and rightly protested. even more widespread than last year, which is very disappointing

12/20/2022, 4:31:34 PM

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